Modelling future salinity in the Lower Fraser River

These resources from a 2016 project provide the results of hydraulic modelling that evaluated the potential impacts of climate change and dredging on salinity in the Fraser River.

The modelling used low river flow and sea level rise scenarios to predict and analyze future salinity levels. Findings included near-term and long-term impacts on salinity by modelling the number of hours per day that water would be of sufficiently low salinity that it could be used for irrigation.

Near-term impacts (10-25 years) are projected to decrease daily irrigation water availability under low river flows by up to 25% or more during periods more extreme low flows.

The report includes recommendations for salinity monitoring locations and a salinity monitoring program.

A follow-up project completed in 2021 built on this work to increase the accessibility and applications of salinity monitoring data in Delta by developing an online dashboard to display salinity data and more.

Further work was completed in 2023 to expand the salinity monitoring program.

*An overview of the work accomplished in the 2021 project starts at 37:00 in the video below:


Project Report - Modelling Effects of Climate Change and Dredging on the Availability of Irrigation Water for Delta Farmers - 2016

4 MB, pdf


871 KB, pdf